The 2024 NFL Draft is less than a month away. While I sift through the prospects that intrigue me — there are so many, and I always find myself changing my mind — I can’t help but circle back to the players I’ve watched and grown to love on the FBS team that I root for. That is, The University of Texas at Austin. Let me be candid: I’ve actually only been a Longhorns fan for one year. It was January 2023, and I needed a college football team to follow. I looked at many teams but, in my draft evaluation at the time, I fell in love with two particular running backs: Roschon Johnson and Bijan Robinson. Boom, I was sold. I was hooked for the full season.
Preface
Alright, now fast forward to 2024. The Bills have made plenty of moves, which has given me an idea about which positions they may target in the draft. Most recently, Buffalo traded star WR Stefon Diggs to Houston in a surprise deal. This has certainly changed my Longhorn prophecy. (I will get to those thoughts in a moment, of course.)
We cannot rule anything out, but the positions I will cover are those that I would be more inclined to target if I were Brandon Beane due to their projected draft position and urgency for depth. Those positions are wide receiver, defensive tackle, offensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback. I purposely left tight end and running back off my list for obvious reasons. The Bills are pretty maxed out at tight end depth at this time; TE Ja’Tavion Sanders is projected to go in the second round. At running back, as talented as he is, I find it hard to believe that the Bills would invest a Day 2 pick in RB Jonathan Brooks, who is coming off a season-ending ACL tear. Now that that is settled, let’s take a peek at my most dire position of need: wide receiver.
The Search for a (New) WR1
Bills fans can go back as far as the 2022 NFL Draft to envision the Bills taking a wide receiver in the first round. At that time, the debate was between wide receiver and outside cornerback. With the promotion of WR Gabe Davis, some fans were understandably concerned and wanted to take a number two wideout early. Ultimately, CB Kaiir Elam was their first round pick.
In 2023, the focus was on an offensive weapon. Of course, some pseudo slot/wide receiver was on the top of the list, but the Bills went with TE Dalton Kincaid after a run on wideouts.
It is 2024, and the Bills still haven’t drafted a wide receiver in the first three rounds in the Brandon Beane era. That has to change. This need is intensified by the fact that the Bills have overhauled their wide receiver room this offseason.
Before the unforeseen Diggs trade, I imagined the Bills choosing from a variety of wide receivers in the first round. Texas wideouts Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy were amongst the pack of eligible Day 1 players, in my eyes. Now that the Bills have an unforgiving, gaping hole of targets left behind by Diggs’ departure, my philosophy has changed quite a bit.
I would be lying if I said that I would be content taking either of the Texas wide receivers to fill that void right away. That doesn’t mean I don’t think they could be suitable number ones down the line. However, I cannot see either of them immediately making such an impact in the Bills offense unless TE Dalton Kincaid and WRs Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are an even bigger focal point than they would have been with Stefon Diggs still in the mix. I would not be totally satisfied with just that wide receiver room in a vacuum.
In the same breath, we cannot entirely rule out that scenario. They drafted Kincaid for a reason. If the Bills truly view him as their Travis Kelce, they might feel comfortable taking Mitchell or Worthy at Pick 28 in a committee role at wide receiver. Besides, the name of the game in the back half of the 2023 season was to spread the ball around. Stefon Diggs was merely just a body in Joe Brady’s offense. If the Bills were to take this approach, which Texas receiver would fit best? Here, I will break down both.
Adonai Mitchell
Rarely do you find prospects with the size and speed combination that Adonai ‘AD’ Mitchell has. Standing at 6 foot-2 inches and 205 pounds, it is remarkable that he ran a 4.34 at the NFL Combine. According to PFF, he played almost exclusively out wide in Texas’ offense — he only had 94 snaps in the slot, compared to 417 snaps out wide. Given this fact, it would make a lot of sense for the Bills to target a player of his build and skill set. Even at his size, he is incredibly fluid and his release off the line of scrimmage puts DBs in a blender.
Needless to say, he is an athletic freak. He ran mostly a complete route tree at Texas, but one of the complaints about him was his yards after catch ability (YAC). While it is true that he did not generate much YAC — his YAC per reception was 3.2 in 2023 — his average depth of target was 16.0 yards, and the routes he ran weren’t accessible for that kind of production. A video made by Brett Kollman, a co-host of the Bootleg Football Podcast, explains this perfectly. Less than 30% of the routes he ran were flat routes, crossing routes, slants, or screens, which tend to generate the most YAC. Adonai didn’t have that opportunity.
His 1.8% drop rate in 2023 is the best in this wide receiver class, and is accentuated by the fact that his quarterback was Quinn Ewers. (No shade, because I love my Quinny-poo. I just think he gave AD bad balls sometimes.) Prior to his one year at Texas, he was part of the 2021 and 2022 University of Georgia championship teams. In all five bowl games he has played in, he has scored a touchdown. That kind of scoring consistency in the playoffs has been severely lacking in the Bills’ offense.
Now, what are his negatives? The consensus is that he does not run his routes at full speed. Whether one views this as a good or bad thing depends on the decider. AD recently said in an interview at the combine that he does this to allow himself to sustain drives. Of course, he ran a 4.34, so we know he can be fast — albeit without pads and football gear. However, there seems to be a lack of effort. Also, one major criticism is he did not finish plays. Too many times on film he slows down on his route when not targeted. That could be a problem if he is playing with Josh Allen, a known play-extender. Whether or not this can be coached out of him remains to be seen. That would be up to the Bills to realize.
While he does have very reliable hands, his contested catch rate was 36.4%, which is below average. (Remember what I said about Mr. Ewers, though?) All in all, whichever NFL team takes him would be getting an exceptional athlete who has all the tools to become a future number one. However, it depends on how committed he is to be that guy and whether he can be used properly to maximize his potential. I believe the Bills would be a great fit for him. But it may be less of a sure-thing now that WR Stefon Diggs is no longer on the team.
Xavier Worthy
The second that he lined up at his 40-yard dash, we all knew he would run a fast time. Perhaps it wasn’t a surprise that he broke the NFL combine record for fastest 40-time. Even after he scored a 4.25 in his first attempt, which still would’ve been the fastest time of all players in the 2024 combine, there was a feeling in the air that he could do much better. Xavier Worthy casually ran a 4.21 to shatter WR John Ross’ previous record (4.22) set back in 2017. Speed usually becomes a canon event at the Underwear Olympics. But it’s helpful to judge what we already know about good football players. WR Xavier Worthy is just that.
He is a great route runner, just like his teammate, and possesses similar fluidity. His skillset ranges from a deep threat to a punt returner. He can play both out wide and in the slot. He can also line up in the backfield and on jet sweeps. Chief among his skillset is his pure speed, which we can talk about all day. His ability to win one-on-one matchups based on that alone is enough to want to draft him. Defensive backs have to be on their heels and give him a suitable cushion just so they don’t get burned. Worthy also displays incredible yards after catch ability.
There are a few issues with Worthy, though. His small frame is what jumps out the most to analysts. He is listed as 5’11” and 165 pounds. Unless he adds more weight, it would be hard for me to see the Bills drafting him, especially given NFL cornerbacks are more physical. Oftentimes, if he does not win with speed, he can’t win with physicality off the line of scrimmage. It is no surprise either that he is not considered an effective blocker. He certainly doesn’t shy away from contact, but size is size. It is a real concern at the NFL level. Worthy’s contested catch rate in 2023 was well below-average, too, at 23.8%. Physicality and size do play a part in it.
Also, he had a drop problem throughout his three seasons in college, with an average drop rate of 7.1% in the regular and postseason, according to PFF. If the Bills do consider drafting Worthy, he would provide an essential deep threat that they have been missing. However, his size does concern me. Without Stefon Diggs on the team, I would be reluctant to take him in the first round.
With that said, I would much rather take AD Mitchell over Xavier Worthy if the Bills were to take one of the two.
Jordan Whittington
The Longhorns’ third option at wide receiver, Jordan Whittington, is not a household name in the 2024 NFL draft, but he was a very stable presence in the Texas locker room. In fact, I feel like more can be said about how much of a “glue guy” he was for the team, let alone his skill as a football player. Jordan joined Texas in 2019 as a highly recruited athlete. He excelled at multiple positions including defensive back, running back, and kick returner, and even a little quarterback. Whittington redshirted as a freshman after an injury led him to miss a majority of the season. He played at Texas for another four years. Given his extended time in Austin, he was a leader who changed the culture of the team. His teammates rave about him.
In 2023, he wrote an open letter in the Player’s Tribune that represents one of the more candid pieces you could read about an athlete. He spoke, humbly, on his decision to come back to Texas that year. What you could take away from his excerpt is his willingness to admit his fear of failure in the NFL. Not many athletes can be so honest, and it doesn’t mean he’s not confident. He faced some injury misfortune throughout college, which likely put doubts in his head, but he kept going and decided to play an additional year to refine his craft. I’d want a man like him on my team.
Now, who is Jordan as a player? He certainly won’t be more than a depth piece. However, I believe he is very functional as a number three or four. Even at 6’1” and 205 pounds, Whittington projects as a slot, possession receiver who would keep an offense ahead of the sticks. He has average speed, but good route-running ability, and a quarterback-friendly play style, while also being able to generate tough YAC.
He would be a perfect depth piece for the Bills, and he provides extensive blocking ability in the running game. Other than being a natural leader and a locker room culture fit, he’s a gritty and reliable receiver. I don’t have anything negative to say about him. He gave the Longhorns a chance in the 2023-24 AllState Sugar Bowl when we were down 31-37 vs. Washington. He caught a 41-yard pass down the sideline with 38 seconds left on 3rd and 10. I’ll never forget that play. (Sadly, Texas lost in a heartbreaker in the final moments.)
Conclusion
I’m sorry that this article took so long to read. It’s been a while since I’ve published a stand-alone piece, and I have had so many thoughts that I needed to share. It’s taken some time for me to open up in writing after the Bills’ divisional loss. But I’m glad that I can use my Texas fandom to share what I know about the Longhorn prospects. Clearly I had a lot to say about the wide receivers, but I also have some insight into the other positions of need as well. Be on the lookout for my next piece. I will focus on the Texas defensive linemen and offensive tackle who I believe will be in consideration for the Buffalo Bills in the 2024 NFL draft!
Featured Image Credit: Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK
